Residential Market Commentary - The latest analysis from CREA

Increasing home resales across Canada took a breather in September, but prices held fairly steady. 

The Canadian Real Estate Association’s latest report shows sales dipped 1.7% last month compared to August, ending a run of gains that started back in April. Once again the Greater Toronto Area was the outlier, showing a year-over-year increase of 8.5% for September.  That was outweighed by declines in Greater Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Ottawa, and Montreal. 

There were decent gains on a year-over-year basis with September sales coming in 5.2% higher than in 2024. 

Pricing, as measured by CREA’s National Composite Home Price Index, was virtually unchanged from August to September (-0.1%), but recorded a 3.4% decline on a y/y basis.  The national average home price was $676,000 in September, up 0.7% from September 2024. 

Canada’s realtors continue to forecast ongoing increases in sales and prices but they are tempering their expectations.  Uncertainty triggered by U.S. tariffs and trade policy seems to have been enough to see interested home buyers step away from the market, especially in British Columbia and Ontario. 

CREA’s latest Quarterly Forecast predicts a 1.1% decline in sales for 2025, with a 1.4% drop in the national average home price to $676,700.  In 2026, national home sales are forecast to rebound by 7.7%, with the national average home price rising by 3.2% to $698,600.