Residential Market Commentary - Delinquency rate declines...a little

On the heels of an optimistic October sales report from Canada’s realtors, the country’s housing agency is noting a small, but welcome, improvement in the mortgage delinquency rate.

The latest Residential Mortgage Industry Report from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation shows the delinquency rate came in at 0.22% in the second quarter of 2025, down one notch from 0.23% in the first quarter.  It is the first decline in three years.

The percentage of households more than 90 days behind on payments has been slowly creeping up in recent years, rising from 0.14% in 2022.  Many homeowners have been renewing mortgages at rates that are higher than the bargain-basement deals that were available during the pandemic.

Repayment trends improved in Atlantic Canada, Quebec and across the Prairies, but British Columbia and Ontario continued as the obvious outliers on the Canadian real estate scene.

Ontario saw a 60% year-over-year increase in delinquencies in the second quarter.  The rate jumped from 0.15% in 2024 to 0.24% this year, fuelled by delinquencies in Toronto.  British Columbia’s mortgage delinquency rate rose from 0.16% to 0.19% between Q2 2024 and Q2 2025.

There are about two-million mortgages coming up for renewal between now and the end of 2026.  It is hoped recent cuts to interest rates will soften the blow for those homeowners and keep delinquencies in check.