Canada’s National Mortgage Conference of mortgage brokers and lenders hears encouraging words from Jason Ellis

  • First National Financial LP

First National’s President and CEO, Jason Ellis, joined other Canadian mortgage lenders at the 2025 National Mortgage Conference, hosted by MPC in Ottawa in mid-October, to discuss the state of the market and offer their observations, insights and advice. Jason’s comments are recapped here.

Canadians are turning to sources other than bank branches for financial services, including mortgages. Despite the strength of bank branches as distribution platforms, consumer habits are changing, and other sources of advice and direction have become increasingly popular, particularly among young Canadians. Something in the neighbourhood of 60% of first-time buyers now rely on mortgage brokers to navigate the complexities of securing a mortgage.

Despite substantial market share, there is more room for mortgage brokers to grow their businesses. First National is here to support this ongoing expansion, which would mirror the relatively higher broker market share experiences in some other western countries. This growth will turn on the quality of advice given to homebuyers as well as access to competitive mortgage products.

The housing market and Canadian borrowers are resilient. No matter what you hear or read in the media, the housing market tends to keep growing year after year. While the level of growth changes, the media tend to overamplify the negative. An example being last year’s stories of a mortgage renewal ‘cliff’ facing pandemic-era borrowers that would catch them out and lead to unprecedented market disruptions. To date, that has not happened.

The stress test did its job admirably. While not always popular among market participants, the minimum qualifying rate or mortgage stress test worked as designed to ensure Canadians were capable of managing renewals in a much higher rate environment.

Bank of Canada monetary policy has changed borrower preferences. In the last 15 months, the BoC has cut rates eight times by a total of 250 basis points, with speculation of at least one more reduction before the end of 2025. As such, adjustable rates are now comparable to fixed rates in absolute terms, and we’ve seen borrowers shifting to adjustable rates as a result. More than 30% of First National’s new commitments are now issued as adjustable rate, compared to less than 15% prior to the BoC’s recent policy shift. During the pandemic, there were periods when over 60% of borrowers chose adjustable even though 5-year fixed rates were also below 2%.

Borrower circumstances and personal capacity to manage risk should outweigh rate type. Borrowers often choose the lowest absolute rate available rather than considering the utility and stability of a low fixed rate. While on the surface this is understandable, it’s not the best practice for all borrowers.

Artificial intelligence isn’t just a talking point at First National. The housing market’s seasonality creates pressures for lenders. First National is intent on creating capacity by using AI tools for repetitive tasks. This won’t replace people but use cases demonstrate it will accelerate important processes that support service. AI is something that cannot be ignored in our industry.

First National returns to private company status empowered by people, capital and technology. After 19 years as a S&P/TSX-listed public company, Birch Hill and Brookfield have taken our company private. We will benefit from the empowerment they provide our team as we deliver on our long-standing commitment to service for customers and mortgage brokers. In other words, it’s business as usual.

For the best combination of products and services, backstopped by the support of our entrepreneurial residential mortgage team, please speak to First National. Because Together We Succeed.

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