Like just about everyone, real estate market watchers are struggling to see through the current economic uncertainty in an effort to get a clear view of what is in store.
A number of analysts seem quite anxious and are not waiting for the monthly market report or Quarterly Forecast from the Canadian Real Estate Association. They are offering early assessments and their outlook is gloomy.
U.K.-based Oxford Economics is among those projecting this country’s housing market downturn will continue for the rest of the year. A report from the firm’s Canadian office points directly at trade and tariff policies coming out of the United States. Even though home prices and interest rates have declined, they say, affordability remains poor. They are also predicting a trade-triggered recession and job losses that will weaken confidence and diminish demand. Reduced immigration will further stymie the market, according to Oxford.
Here are some of the early reports: The Calgary Real Estate Board’s June figures show home sales dropped 16.5% from the year before. Prices were down nearly 4.0% y/y. New listings rose, and are up 83% from last year.
June sales dropped nearly 10% y/y in the Greater Vancouver Area. Prices slipped almost 3.0% while new listings rose more than 10% compared to a year earlier.
The Greater Toronto Area saw a 2.4% y/y decline is sales, a 7.7% increase in new listings and a 5.4% drop in prices.
The Canadian Real Estate Association’s national stats for June and its Quarterly Forecast are due next week.