Quarterly Report – April 2025

The latest Quarterly Forecast from the Canadian Real Estate Association is short and sharp. The association has made significant downgrades to its outlook for this year and 2026.

Major Revisions

“Since CREA briefly paused forecasting at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, this latest CREA forecast constitutes the largest revision in between quarterly forecasts on record going back to the 2008-2009 financial crisis,” the report says.

Tariffs Trigger Uncertainty

The realtors place the blame squarely on the trade turmoil emanating from the United States. “With buyers increasingly fleeing to, or remaining on, the sidelines amid tariff uncertainty, and with the associated economic damage only beginning, sales have continued to fall. Prices in some parts of the country are following suit.”

Sales and Price Growth Stall

CREA expects the national average home price will slip by 0.3% on an annual basis to about $689,000 this year. That amounts to about $30,000 less price growth than what was forecast in the January report. The slowdown will likely be led by actual price declines in British Columbia and Ontario. Others provinces have had their projected price increases trimmed back into the 3.0% to 5.0% range. 

CREA is now forecasting 2025 sales volumes will be virtually the same as 2024 with just under 483,000 (-0.02%) residential properties trading hands. That is a significant reduction from the 8.6% increase forecast in January.

Prices & Sales Linger Lower for 2026

For 2026 CREA expects national home sales will improve by 2.9%, but remain below the 500,000 mark for the fourth straight year. The national average price is forecast to edge up by 1.2% to $696,000 in 2026.