Canada’s realtors are hoping that the home sales rally in May and June will help cushion the market even as they issue another downgrade to their forecast for the rest of this year and into 2026.
Forecasts Derailed by U.S. Tariffs
The Canadian Real Estate Association started the year projecting a recovery in 2025, but that changed as trade and tariff troubles emerged from the United States.
In its April outlook CREA dropped its forecast for an 8.6% sales increase and revised its sales and pricing projections to flat. Now the association expects to see declines in both, with sales dipping 3.0% to 469,500 units and the national average price slipping 1.7% to $677,000 – about $10,000 less than forecast in April.
Most of the declines will be experienced in British Columbia and Ontario and will offset gains made in the rest of the country.
Encouraged by Recent Rally
The realtors are taking some encouragement from the most recent monthly figures which show sales increases in May and June. There has also been a slight tightening in housing inventory, but not enough to push up prices. May to June pricing was largely unchanged while the national average home price was down 1.3% compared to June of 2024. Again, B.C. and Ontario were named as the main culprits.
2026 Looking Better
CREA’s forecast for 2026 is much brighter with sales predicted to rise by 6.3%, to nearly 500,000 units. The national average home price is projected to increase by 3.0% to $698,000.