First National Financial LP®

Residential Mortgage Commentary - Cooling continues as fall arrives

  • First National Financial LP

The Canadian Real Estate Association reports home sales in Canada continue to decline, dipping 1.9% in September compared to August.  This is an on-going trend that started in May.  Year-over-year, September sales were 1.9% higher than in 2022.

The number of new listings saw one of biggest increases in recent months, climbing 6.3% from August to September.  It is the sixth straight month for gains and new listings are up 35% since March.

The sales-to-new listings ratio eased to 51.4% compared to 56.2% in August.  It is the first time since January that the measure has fallen below its long-term average of 55.2%.

Inventories continue to increase, with about 3.7 months of stock on hand, up from about 3.4 months in August.  The long term average is about 5 months.

“The recent trend of slowing sales and rising new listings continued in September.  This presents an opportunity for buyers, although many of them seem content to stick to the sidelines until there’s more evidence that interest rates are indeed finally at the top,” said Larry Cerqua, Chair of CREA.

Prices appear to have stabilised.  CREA’s Aggregate Composite Home Price Index slipped 0.3% compared to August, due solely to trends in Ontario.  Year-over-year the HPI was up 1.1%.

The National Average price was up 2.5% compared to a year ago, coming in at a little more than $655,000.  As always, that number is skewed higher by activity in Toronto and Vancouver.